Oscars 2025 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Now that the dust has settled following the 2024 ceremony, it’s time to turn attention toward the 2025 Oscars and the movies that are competing to secure a Best Picture nomination and campaign for a win. As surprising nominees and winners at the 2024 Oscars proved, predicting the 2025 results so far ahead of time is no easy task. However, some serious contenders for awards season have already emerged as Oscars 2025 predictions for all categories begin to take shape. This includes a strong group of movies competing for one of ten Best Picture nominations.

Even heading into the 2025 Oscars season, some movies were looked at early on as major contenders. Dune: Part Two is eligible after being delayed from its original 2023 release date, while new movies from Luca Guadagnino, Yorgos Lanthimios, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, Ridley Scott, Steve McQueen, and Clint Eastwood were looked at as contenders to watch out for. Of course, awards season always has a few surprises that gain momentum and find up in the Best Picture race. Ahead of the official nomination announcement on January 17, 2025, Screen Rant‘s predicted Best Picture nominees and winners look like this.

10

Sing Sing

Release: July 12, 2024

After debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2023, Sing Sing established itself as a genuine awards contender by ticking several popular Oscars boxes. The movie is based on the real-life story of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. Within this context, it uses a combined cast of professional actors, including former Oscar nominee Colman Domingo, and former inmates to recreate the production of an original musical, Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code.

The movie’s unique premise and production, together with extremely positive reviews and an intriguing biographical element, makes it a serious contender for Best Picture in 2025. There is no debate about the film’s quality and favorable reception from audiences and critics, but whether it secures a Best Picture nomination could depend on A24’s campaign. The July release made the movie an early contender, but the buzz has died down in the months since as other festivals happened and put more contenders in stronger positions. Sing Sing still holds onto a Best Picture nomination for now.

9

Dune: Part Two

Release: March 1, 2024

After an extended delay, Denis Villeneuve’s awe-inspiring Dune sequel missed out on eligibility for the 2024 Oscars. Considering its cultural impact, many felt that this was a missed opportunity. However, following huge critical and commercial success, the movie established itself as a firm favorite for the next round of awards despite releasing long before other competitors. Concluding the story of Paul Atreides and his transition from outlaw to emperor, the movie expertly weaves epic scope with a thoughtful discussion of imperialism, religion, and romance. Villeneuve is already tipped as a Best Director candidate to aid its Best Picture credentials.

History is also on Dune: Part Two‘s side to receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in 2025. Villeneuve’s original movie received a nomination in 2022, but it did not win. His sci-fi film Arrival also got a Best Picture nomination. With the Academy Awards voting body clear fans of his work, Dune 2 arguably surpassing what he did in the first film should enable it to get into the 2025 Best Picture race – even if its odds of winning might be lower than the rest.

8

Blitz

Release: November 1, 2024

Directed by previous Best Picture winner Steve McQueen, Blitz is a tantalizing historical drama set during the titular German bombing campaign in the Second World War. An impressive cast featuring Saoirse Ronan, Stephen Graham, and Harris Dickinson only adds to the sense of excitement around the project. As far as the Oscars are concerned, however, there’s reason to be bullish about the movie’s chances. The director’s previous historical drama, 12 Years A Slave, won Best Picture and two other Oscars out of nine nominations, so Blitz being a strong contender is no surprise.

Blitz‘s full campaign push has yet to even really begin. The movie did not screen at buzzier film festivals like Toronto, Venice, or Cannes, instead opting to be the opener at the BFI London Film Festival on October 9, 2024. Once the first screening happens and the expected brilliance of McQueen’s movie is solidified, Blitz could rise higher and become a legitimate contender to win Best Picture in 2025.

7

A Complete Unknown

Release: December 25, 2024

James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is an expected contender for the 2025 Oscars Best Picture race. Starring Timothée Chalamet as the iconic musician, the movie will look to join the list of music biopics that received Best Picture nominations. The Academy shows plenty of favor to true stories, especially those that revolve around massive pop culture figures and have the kind of star power in front of and behind the camera as A Complete Unknown.

James Mangold previously got a Best Picture nomination for a true story movie with Ford v. Ferrari

There is still uncertainty about A Complete Unknown, though, as the film is still completely unknown. No one has seen the movie as it wasn’t ready for the festival circuit. Searchlight appears to have plenty of confidence in it by giving it a Christmas 2024 release date, allowing it to be one of the late-year, splashy titles to enter the race. However, that could also be to the film’s detriment if a consensus has already started to form for titles released earlier on. A Complete Unknown will need to be really special to make enough to become a legitimate contender to win.

6

Conclave

Release: November 2024

Based on the best-selling novel by author Robert Harris, Conclave combines a stacked cast with a gripping story – potentially creating the ideal Best Picture formula. Featuring the likes of Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini, the movie concerns a Papal election and an intriguing mystery. Not only does the talent aligned in front of the camera contain multiple Academy Award nominees, but Conclave is also directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, whose previous project, All Quiet On The Western Front, won the Best International Feature Film award in 2023.

Conclave looks to be in a good position to get a Best Picture nomination, but whether it can become a winner is a different question. This could largely depend on how voters respond to the film’s unexpected tone. Conclave reviews out of Telluride and TIFF noted that it is sillier than many thought it would be. The performances certainly deliver, but if the movie’s tone proves to be too divisive, it might have to settle for being happy to just be nominated. This is also trickier since Focus Features has never won the Best Picture Oscar despite 12 previous nominations.

5

The Room Next Door

Release Date: December 20, 2024

Pedro Almodóvar’s new movie The Room Next Door looks to be a potential contender for a Best Picture nomination at the 2025 Oscars. The film stars former Oscar winners Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore and marks Almodóvar’s first feature-length film made in English. That change is notable considering his track record with the Academy in the International Feature Film category. He won the category in 2000 with All About My Mother and was nominated again in 2020 for Pain and Glory. But, The Room Next Door could mark his first Best Picture nomination.

Early reviews for The Room Next Door have been mostly positive out of screenings at Toronto and Venice, which is why the movie has some buzz for this Oscar nomination, especially after winning the Golden Lion at Venice. However, they also reveal a problem with its chances to win. Most point out that The Room Next Door is not among Pedro Almodóvar’s best movies. The Academy is also known to give out makeup Oscars to honor people who have done better work before and weren’t properly recognized. Perhaps that narrative could propel Almodóvar’s film further.

4

Gladiator II

Release: November 22, 2024

Considering Ridley Scott’s mixed critical and commercial performance in recent years, Gladiator II may not seem like an obvious 2025 Oscars candidate. However, despite the failure of projects like Napoleon, the movie may yet succeed. This is in no small part thanks to the legacy of its illustrious predecessor. The original Gladiator won five Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Actor. This suggests that Scott’s movie does have the potential to be a major contender at the 2025 ceremony. This is especially true, given the involvement of illustrious performers like Paul Mescal and Oscars heavyweights such as Denzel Washington.

Another point in Gladiator 2‘s favor for its Best Picture case is what it would mean for Ridley Scott. His movies have only netted him one other nomination, The Martian, in his prolific career. A third nomination at this stage of his career would be huge. If Gladiator 2 ultimately wins Best Picture like the original 2000 movie, then it will be only the third sequel to ever win the category.

3

The Brutalist

Release Date: December 20, 2024

The Brutalist has emerged as a major contender for the Best Picture Oscar in 2025. The three-and-a-half-hour historical epic left a major impression on audiences following its premiere at Venice and subsequent showings at Toronto. It was enough to get A24 to acquire the project, which hails from director Brady Corbet and stars Oscar-winner Adrien Brody and Oscar-nominee Felicity Jones, and give it a late December 2024 release date.

While the end-of-year release date could hurt something like A Complete Unknown, that is less of a concern for The Brutalist thanks to its reception at festivals. The movie is already mounting support in many other categories – like Best Director, Best Editing, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor – and that should only bolster its Best Picture potential. A24 is no stranger to turning movies into Best Picture contenders either. The Brutalist will now look to join Moonlight and Everything Everywhere All At Once as A24’s Best Picture winners.

2

Emilia Pérez

Release: November 1, 2024

Winner of the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival, Emilia Pérez is a boundary-pushing contender for Oscars glory. Starring Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascon, and Selena Gomez, the movie mixes musical sensibilities with the story of a cartel leader undergoing sex reassignment surgery with the help of a disaffected lawyer. With original songs and virtuoso performances across the board, the movie quickly established an impressive reputation.

Although its content may in some years have been considered too unconventional for the Oscars, there are other indicators that Emilia Pérez is on track to succeed. Not only was it nominated for a Palme d’Or, but the movie’s combined cast received the Best Actress award as a collective ensemble. After finishing as a runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, Emilia Pérez is building a necessary resume to be a Best Picture winner as support mounts for it to be recognized in Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, and more.

1

Anora

Release Date: October 18, 2024

Arguably the most anticipated movie to come out of Cannes 2024, Anora is already a frontrunner for the Oscars and our predicted Best Picture winner. An atypical romance that shines a light on the world of sex work, Anora has enjoyed critical acclaim – receiving a 10-minute standing ovation from festival-goers after its premiere. Given this reaction, it’s unsurprising that the movie won the 2024 Palme d’Or.

Anora‘s success at Cannes provides a fascinating insight as far as the Oscars are concerned. The movie is set to be distributed by Neon in the United States, becoming the fifth Palme d’Or winner to do so. Intriguingly, one previous Neon project was 2020 Best Picture winner Parasite – providing a clear precedent for Anora‘s potential success. With nominations expected in other major categories like Best Actress, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing, there’s room for Anora to be much bigger at the Oscars 2025 than just a Best Picture winner.